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Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Investment Challenges/Opportunities Faced By The Greek Economy

Below are 2 articles (courtesy D. P.) regarding investment challenges/opportunities faced by the Greek economy:

From recession to recovery

How will Greek tourism remain competitive

18 comments:

  1. Thanks for publishing. Unfortunately the eye-opening part of the Pcw report is in Greek (the attached pdf). All of its findings are very relevant but mostly the following:

    To feed systemic GDP growth rates of 3% -4% per annum then annual investment should grow by 10-12 %% of GDP, ie around € 18-20 billion to reach € 40 billion per annum.
    • Because of the weak housing market, it is unlikely that private investment will recover in this area around the middle levels of the past decade (approx. € 15 billion, annually). During the period 2000-2007, Greece experienced 99% growth in housing investment and during the period 2008-2016 Greece has experienced a 96% shrinkage/reduction in housing investment.
    • Present fiscal constraints(due to the memoranda) will not allow the government/public investment to double
    to the € 12 billion a year needed target. Only additional PPPs could fund additional infrastructure investments but by themselves public private partnerships can not do the job (Greece is already pushing PPPs to the limit).
    • The investment gap to the critical mass in order to maintain growth is mostly carried by tourism and the manufacturing industry, and in particular SMEs, which are called upon to do the job (an unlikely scenario).
    . There is a need for 15 Billion euro annual investment for existing Greek firms/companies to counter-balance equipment & technology functional obsolesence.
    .There is a 99 Billion euro investment gap which places Greece last in terms of competitiveness in Europe.

    Observation: Investment in housing is critical for recovery and the settlement of the public debt issue looms large in removing uncertainty for future meaningful investments. For sure Greek SMEs can not by themselves bring the wished recovery.

    Dean.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I doubt if in most important ministries would ever read those documents.

    The mindset -not to read such documents- is dominating.

    What many people don't understand, is the following as can be seen with an example:

    In Corfu two new major touristic units were planning to start during May.

    They asked to employ 600 people. How many people were hired?
    120.The interest was limited.

    Why is happening this?

    Government is giving dividents, allowances, benefits, family allowances etc.

    This come from "hyper-surplus", aka cutting from everyone literally helping potential voters with outstanding demographic targeting.

    The problem:

    The social benefits, allowances and dividends are not connected with education, training or opening employment opportunities.

    If you are unemployed, you earn 200e, a couple earns 300/ month, with 2 children 400/month and the couple may have also pay less electricity bills around 50%, water around 50% less,munincipality payments around 70% less, enfia -50% less and be part of social grocery.
    This couple is earning also 700e from social dividend and family allowance for the 2 children which increased from 1000 to 1700e.

    This couple will earn 7200e (untaxed) without working, without calculating the less 50% payments in public utilities companies.

    There is a variance however in receiving allowances depending from peoples assets,houses, land etc. Therefore many people may receive less.

    But the major point:

    Working in Corfu for 600e per month for a period or elsewere in Greece for 300-400e is for people with great dignity, because you can earn almost the same money, without working, being unemployed.

    Because if you own an appartment in Corfu, or a small home or 3-4 rooms you can rent them for 80-100 days (without using hospitality services) for at least 8.000e.

    So why to work for 600e in a luxury hotel if you receive various allowances and usually untaxed income from assets?

    In Greece around 800.000-1.000.000 people are helped partly or in full from allowances policies.

    This is a culture which forms an attitude.
    And together develop mindsets, build consciences and set up resistances against investment and economic reconstruction.

    This is the meaning of "distribute" from "hyper surpluses".

    And this article is indicative about the mindset.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/griechenland-elend-bleibt-trotz-alexis-tsipras-beteuerungen-15542545.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_0

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tough article; sometimes relentless criticism is not the best tool for winning cooperation. However, your point is valid. If salaries are too low and roughly approximate the size of government handouts then there is not a real incentive to work. Keep in mind though that Greece is full of pensioners and the greying of society a very real problem. And pensioners are not easily hireable.

      Dean.

      Delete
    2. I think one has to look at the total picture in the EU vs. Greece as an isolated case:

      https://pro.creditwritedowns.com/2018/04/franco-german-friendship-myth.html?pk_campaign=feed&pk_kwd=franco-german-friendship-myth&utm_source=Credit+Writedowns&utm_campaign=4625c79216-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e0dde9ccad-4625c79216-408278185#.WuHtQOjwa00

      Delete
  3. "If you are unemployed, you earn 200e...."

    You really have no idea how unemployement benefits works in Greece.
    Stop spreading lies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The service is called: "Social Income Solidarity" or in greek "Κοινωνικό Εισόδημα Αλληλεγγύης".

      You cannot receive Social Income Solidarity if you have a job.

      https://www.dikaiologitika.gr/eidhseis/asfalish/137366/kea-poioi-dikaioyntai-to-koinoniko-eisodima-epidoma-allileggyis-ola-ta-kritiria

      To translate this page copy the following greek title to a search engine:

      ΚΕΑ: Ποιοι δικαιούνται το Κοινωνικό Εισόδημα Επίδομα Αλληλεγγύης - Όλα τα κριτήρια

      and when the same web address dikaiologitika.gr and title appear in greek, first or second, then click under the title "translate this page".

      Date is 8th Jan 2017

      What they say:

      "The second half of January is expected to begin implementing the Social Solidarity Income (SIS), which will cover approximately 700,000 beneficiaries living in extreme poverty.

      Beneficiaries will receive:

      - For one-person household, 200 euro per month.
      - For each additional adult household member, an additional € 100 per month.
      - For each minor member, an increment of 50 euros each month.
      - In addition, the SIS is linked to a range of social services, benefits and goods, such as free health care for uninsured people, provision of school meals, referral and inclusion in social care and support structures and services, and inclusion in Social Poverty Management Structures.

      The income and property criteria:

      Real Estate

      The total value of the household property may not exceed € 90,000 for the single-person household, increased by € 15,000 for each additional member and up to € 150,000."

      Another category, are family allowances.

      https://www.dikaiologitika.gr/eidhseis/asfalish/185061/oikogeneiaka-epidomata-poies-oikogeneies-kerdizoun-kai-poies-xanoun

      (...)

      2) Families with 2 parents and 2 protected children:

      a) Increase the monthly allowance from 80 to 140 euros for families with annual income of up to € 10,000.

      b) Increase in the monthly allowance from 53 to 140 euros for families with annual incomes of over 10,000 and up to 12,000 euros.

      Total allowance for those with income up to 10.000e is 140x12=1.680e

      Another category, social dividend: beneficiaries and allocation criteria (total applications where 2.4 mln and 1.2 mln were served.)

      http://www.cnn.gr/news/ellada/story/106554/koinoniko-merisma-oi-dikaioyxoi-kai-ta-kritiria-katanomis-toy

      Two parents and two children with income from 6-12.000e the allowance is 700e.

      The sums are here.

      http://www.newsbomb.gr/oikonomia/story/839875/koinoniko-merisma-2017-ypologiste-to-poso-poy-tha-parete-pinakas

      So if two adults -they are unemployed- and have to children they can receive 4800e/ year Social Solidarity Income, allowance for 2 children is 1.680e and social divident is 700e.

      The total sum is 7.180e per year or 598.33e per month-without working.

      What is lie?

      Delete
  4. I can't read the report in Greek but it seems to be a re-hash of their June 2017 report I read when it was published. One thing is peculiar, this one is called "From recession to recovery", and the previous was called "From recession to anemic recovery".
    I agree with their main conclusion that if there is a recovery, it will be a creditless. I do not think any Greek government can create the conditions they rightly outline as conditions for a recovery. Most of their ideas are correct, there are 2 of them I totally disagree with:
    -To start the previous housing construction boom again is a waste of money.
    -To give "soft" loans to SME's is a waste of money. Greek SME's are not like European SME's which can be anything up to 250 employees. The average Greek SME comprises 3.4 persons, the owner (father), the supervisor (son), and the 1,4 Albanians cooking and serving the souvlaki.
    It will be interesting to see how the governments plan tomorrow tally with this one.
    PS. You can read the June 2017 report in English if you click "Investments in Greece" on their page instead of downloading the referred report.
    Lennard.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This is an interesting take. Loose transaltion follows:

    One of the best new generation's historians, Nikos Marantzidis, also known by his opinion polls on SKAI's television, has shocked.

    He wrote an article in "Kathimerini", in which, for the first time in his life, he said good words about SYRIZA. Friends, admirers, readers and analysts did not believe it: How does a fanatically anti-communist professor and historian, who states a social liberal, speaks positively about the Tsipra government?

    How did this man who was beaten by Stalin-anarchist in his school because he "blames the Left" came to praise the neo-communists of the government?

    What does Marantzidis say? He argues that SYRIZA has changed for the better after the victory in the 2015 elections. From a radical party it became social democratic: now, it has a European orientation, accepts liberal democracy and a mixed economy. It was, we would say, a ND-PASOK blend, from where it was a stalin-anarchist.

    In fact, a station in the mutation of SYRIZA Marantzidis considers the expulsion from the lines of all the extremists, like Lafazanis and Zois.

    Marantzidis believes that this transformation of SYRIZA is positive for Greece and is a victory of the Republic over the Communists. He lists (he is a specialist analyst of communism, wrote with Stathis Kalyva a shocking book on the Greek Civil War) and other European ex-antisystemic parties that have mutated in modest shapes and co-ordinate their steps in the European acquis as they fought yesterday.

    And so, he concludes in his analysis, SYRIZA from a neo-communist wolf is gradually becoming a lame socialist lamb.

    He does not say it, but he suggests that this "born again" SYRIZA will play a role in political affairs, even if it loses the election.

    Marantzidis criticizes those who believe the opposite. Without naming names, he attacks strongly Venizelos and ND calling on a "anti-SYRIZA" front and demanding that Tsipras be defeated strategically. He believes that this tactic reproduces a sort of unclaimed civilian civil war and contributes to arid polarization. Those who say they set up careers and do bad things in the country, he wrote in his article.



    Source: What a fly stunned Marantzidis iefimerida.gr

    http://www.iefimerida.gr/opinion/412265/poia-myga-tsimpise-ton-marantzidi

    Dean.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Constructive part of the reports, point taken....

    To my fellow commenters:

    Keep betting against....

    It only makes the investors and savers of Greece more of a sure "pay off" later....

    Hearsay sometimes means something and sometimes it does not. In all aspects. Searching underneath articles, reports and gossip and seeing the facts one can calculate the real outcome.

    Its all I have to say...

    V

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What changed V?

      Delete
    2. Read between lines. Don't read any mainstream garbage. Read corporate reports on anything on Greece. Above all don't watch tv news.

      Then when you start seeing things, big things, then think again why.

      In Greece for something to get done needs minimal attention. Strategic moves which confirm signs I have been seeing for years.

      Also don't listen to cafenia conversations as they basically modern mythology

      V

      Delete
  7. According to Stern, debt restructuring for GReece has zero cost for the Germans:

    http://www.iefimerida.gr/news/412691/stern-den-kostizei-dekara-stoys-germanoys-i-elafrynsi-hreoys

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stern magazine article on Greek debt:

    https://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/griechenland--eine-absage-des-schuldennachlasses-waere-ein-affront-7960304.html

    Dean.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Some of the above comments totally confuse me and perhaps there could be more clarification.

    The situation which Anonymous described on April 25 at 10.57 represents the social welfare in countries like Germany or Austria: first there is extensive unemployment insurance which, when unemployment is longer-term, converts into lower 'minimum welfare'. At the same time, there are child support payments and other social benefits. This is why Germany became the 'sick man of Europe' 15 years ago because not working was for many more attractive than working (and Schröder's Agenda 2010 corrected this).

    My understanding was/is that Greece does not have such social benefits. There are low unemployment payments for a rather short time and after that there is nothing; nada. On top of that, people without any income whatsoever may have to pay imputed taxes (like when they own a car). My understanding was that close to 1 million Greeks are in that situation.

    Now if what Anonymous says is correct, that would paint an entirely different picture of the 'suffering' of the Greek people. This is why I would ask for more clarification.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. kleingut,

      If someone own a car, a home, or both is having presumption. The presumption is a method by which it is possible tax authorities to determine another income (eg from assets or the interest in banks) in relation to the declared, and to tax the citizen on it. Presumption is refutable on income tax, if there is not income. On enfia someone can pay 50% less if he is unemployed with no other income.

      One critical point is how social benefits are distributed compared to minimum wage in labor market.

      From SIS web page

      http://e-learning.keaprogram.gr/el/Lesson/L03/Asset/258079/faq_manual

      "Income criteria"
      "Household income in the six months preceding the submission of the application may not exceed six times the guaranteed amount for each household type.The guaranteed amount is defined as follows:200 euros a month for a single-person household" etc

      The minimum wage is 586e (14 payments per month) but 1311e/year in social contributions. For people under the age of 25 minimum wage is 511e.

      https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/report/2018/statutory-minimum-wages-in-the-eu-2018

      But there are many people who work for 350-400e (in theory, part time).

      http://www.insider.gr/hristika/ergasia/76541/me-mistho-kato-ton-500-eyro-57-ton-neon-ergazomenon

      42% of those hired the last 12months are paid with less than 500e.

      Minimum wage in Greece is very low in relation to the level of various allowances.

      This relation, minimum wage to allowances i don't know, is the difference so close in Germany or in Austria?

      Technically, the effort to measure unit labor cost & productivity in Greece is applicable, if there is the same level of payments- at least in part time employment- from being unemployed and receiving social welfare?

      There are a hundred factors that define productivity and minimum wage.

      In theory if the economy is increasing its strenght why productivity remain subdued?

      http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tipslm10&plugin=1

      Probably there are many different interpretations.

      Delete
    2. kleingut,clarifications were helpful or my answer was unhelpful or blurring-unsettling?

      Delete
    3. For the relation, minimum wage to allowances, is the difference (the gap) more close in Germany - Austria or the opposite?

      Delete